ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2003 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF LINDA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF DEEP CONVECTION. IN ADDITION... A TIGHT CIRCULATION IS APPARENT IN VISIBLE PICTURES WITH A CURVED BAND FEATURE ARCING THROUGH THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. THOUGH CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON... INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE STILL INCREASING WITH 40 KT BEING CHOSEN AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN TAFB...SAB AND AFWA. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER LINDA IS LOW AT THE MOMENT AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BE SMALL FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS EXCELLENT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST... ALSO FAVORING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE SHIPS MODEL INCREASES THIS STORM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS.. AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES THE SAME. AFTER 36 HOURS... A COMBINATION OF INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER WATER BELOW 26C SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE SLOWLY AT FIRST THEN MORE RAPIDLY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE OVER SSTS NEAR 23-24C. LINDA IS MOVING A BIT QUICKER THAN THE MORNING ADVISORY...315/09 KT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS... CONTINUING UPON A PATH BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KT. A TURN TO THE LEFT IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE UKMET AND GFS MODELS. THIS TURN IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THE UKMET WEAKER WITH THE RIDGE NEAR 120W. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE RIDGE INTACT... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS THOUGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIDDLE TO HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES BY ABOUT MID-WEEK. FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 17.4N 110.7W 40 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 18.2N 111.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 19.5N 113.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 20.5N 115.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 21.3N 117.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 21.5N 120.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 21.5N 122.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 21.5N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC