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Tropical Depression TWELVE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2003

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM SEAWINDS SCATTEROMETER INDICATE THAT
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E AT THIS TIME. BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER WARM WATER AND LOW SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS... ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 345
DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO
THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST IS INDICATED.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND INTO HIGH SHEAR.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0900Z 16.5N 108.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 17.5N 109.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 19.0N 109.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 20.5N 111.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 21.5N 112.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 22.5N 115.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W    25 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 22.6N 122.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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