ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED SEP 03 2003 VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE CIRCULATION...EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E. CONVECTION STILL PERSISTS HOWEVER IT IS NOT ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THAN SIX HOURS AGO. DVORAK T-NUMBERS YIELDED T1.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND T2.0 FROM AFWA. BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/6...A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION WHICH WILL STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...ONCE AGAIN... FOLLOWS THE GFS WHICH MAINTAINS THE RIDGE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BOTH THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS LOSE THE CIRCULATION AFTER 48 HOURS IN A SECOND CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SLOW STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES COOLER WATERS IN 48-72 HOURS. OUR INTENSITY REFLECTS THIS TREND AND WEAKENS THE CYCLONE TO A REMNANT LOW IN FIVE DAYS. GIVEN THE DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LARGE CIRCULATION...RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED. FORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 19.4N 112.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 19.9N 113.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 20.5N 114.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 21.0N 116.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 21.3N 118.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 22.0N 122.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 22.5N 125.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 08/1800Z 22.5N 128.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC