ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2003 AT 12Z...SOCORRO REPORTED A SOUTH WIND WITH A 1001.6 MB PRESSURE...AFTER REPORTING A NORTH WIND LAST NIGHT. IN ADDITION... RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT INDICATES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR SOCORRO. THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 01Z SHOWED A DECENT...IF BROAD CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E...EVEN THOUGH SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T1.0...AT BEST. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE POSITION OF THE CENTER AT THIS TIME...AND THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE TO BE RELOCATED CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AFTER MORE VISIBLE IMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED TO BE 295/8. CURRENTLY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS...WHICH SEEMED TO INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM BETTER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. THE GFS BUILDS THE RIDGE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK. THE DEPRESSION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SLOW STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES COOLER WATERS IN 48-72 HOURS. GIVEN THE LARGE...SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED. FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 19.2N 111.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 19.7N 113.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 20.3N 114.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 20.7N 116.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 21.0N 118.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 07/1200Z 22.0N 125.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 08/1200Z 22.0N 128.5W 25 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC