ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2003 LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES FOR TODAY CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY TIGHT...10 NM DIAMETER...PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED EYE. INFRARED IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF...AND GREATER SYMMETRY TO THE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND JIMENA. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA FURTHER SUPPORT THIS TREND...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. INITIAL MOTION REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN 36 HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. UKMET CONTINUES TO BE THE SINGLE OUTLIER...BEING SLOWER TO BUILD THE RIDGE AND ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND AGREES WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. JIMENA IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE ISOTHERM AND WILL SOON BE ENTERING SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AS IT PASSES WEST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS LEVEL AT 85 KT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH A VERY GRADUAL DECAY THEREAFTER. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE AND FITS THE INTENSITY TREND OF THE GFDL MODEL. THE PROSPECT FOR SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ENTERS INTO A REGION OF WARMING SSTS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. FORECASTER LAWRENCE/HOLWEG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 17.3N 139.0W 85 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 17.7N 141.2W 85 KT 24HR VT 31/0000Z 17.8N 144.3W 85 KT 36HR VT 31/1200Z 17.9N 147.8W 85 KT 48HR VT 01/0000Z 18.0N 151.2W 80 KT 72HR VT 02/0000Z 18.0N 157.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 03/0000Z 18.0N 163.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 04/0000Z 18.0N 168.5W 70 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC