Tropical Storm JIMENA

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2003
 
JIMENA IS INTENSIFYING AS INDICATED BY INFRARED AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT
FROM SAB.  A 0556Z SSMI PASS REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED EYE UNDER THE
CONCENTRATED COLD CONVECTION. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT.
 
THE SYSTEM IS GAINING MORE LATITUDE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 300/12...WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO WELL-TIMED SSMI PASSES DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. THIS MOTION IS PRESUMABLY DUE TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INDUCED BY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF
HAWAII.  THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND ALLOW THE RIDGE TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEREFORE BEGIN A TURN TO
THE WEST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
THROUGH 72 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A STRONG ANTICYCLONE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF HAWAII.  SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION IS
EXPECTED BEYOND 72 HOURS AS THE ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS.  THIS TRACK IS
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MOSTLY DUE TO THE
INITIAL MOTION...AND IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS/GUNA
CONSENSUS.
 
JIMENA IS CURRENTLY OVER 27-28C WATERS...BUT DUE TO THE MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK IT SHOULD SPEND A LITTLE MORE TIME OVER SUB-26C
WATERS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEREFORE LEVELED OFF AT 70 KT
AFTER 36 HOURS.  IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT TURN TO THE WEST AS QUICKLY
AS EXPECTED...THE INTENSITY COULD BE WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN/KNABB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0900Z 16.4N 134.6W    55 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 17.3N 136.3W    60 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 18.0N 139.2W    65 KT
 36HR VT     30/1800Z 18.0N 142.1W    70 KT
 48HR VT     31/0600Z 18.0N 145.3W    70 KT
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 18.0N 151.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     02/0600Z 18.0N 156.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     03/0600Z 18.0N 160.5W    70 KT
 
 
NNNN