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Tropical Storm JIMENA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2003
 
JIMENA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS INDICATED BY INCREASED BANDING OF
COLD TOP CONVECTION AND AN OCCASIONAL APPEARANCE OF AN EYE LIKE
FEATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS
FAIRLY SYMMETRIC. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM
TAFB...45 KT FROM SAB AND PHFO...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.   

FIXES FROM ALL THE SATELLITE AGENCIES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER WAS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THUS THE INITIAL
MOTION IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS...295/12.
JIMENA MAY ALSO BE RESPONDING TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING BY TO
THE NORTHWEST AS INDICATED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT IN 24-36 HOURS. THUS THE STORM SHOULD
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN DUE WESTWARD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS AND THE GUNS/GUNA ENSEMBLES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS AND CLOSER TO THE SUITE OF DYNAMICAL MODELS. 
 
JIMENA IS CURRENTLY OVER 27-28C WATERS...AND SHOULD STAY OVER THIS
TEMPERATURE FOR 24-36 HR. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE OVER
MARGINAL SSTS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...SO THE SSTS ARE THE CONTROLLING FACTOR
IN THE INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO
A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS...THEN MAINTAINING A STEADY STATE THROUGH
THE REMIANDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE CROSSES THE MARGINAL
SSTS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AFTER 72
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ONCE AGAIN ENCOUNTERS HIGHER SSTS SOUTH OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. 

FORECASTER COBB/AVILA 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0300Z 15.6N 133.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     29/1200Z 15.9N 135.3W    60 KT
 24HR VT     30/0000Z 16.4N 137.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     30/1200Z 16.8N 139.8W    70 KT
 48HR VT     31/0000Z 17.0N 142.2W    70 KT
 72HR VT     01/0000Z 17.0N 147.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     02/0000Z 17.0N 152.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     03/0000Z 17.0N 158.0W    75 KT
 
 
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