ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2003 SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5...OR 35 KT... HOWEVER...A TRIM MICROWAVE PASS AT 0841Z SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE DISPLACED NORTH OF THE CENTER POSITION INFERRED FROM THE INFRARED IMAGERY. BASED ON THE MICROWAVE PASS...I WILL HOLD OFF UPGRADING THE CYCLONE TO A STORM FOR NOW. THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO QUESTIONS ABOUT THE INITIAL POSITION. I BELIEVE THE CENTER IS PROBABLY NORTH OF THE ADVISORY POSITION GIVEN BELOW BUT I PREFER TO WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGERY BEFORE MAKING TOO MUCH OF AN ADJUSMENT IN THE TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/12. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD TO NEAR 140W. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N145W IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BUT LEAVE ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THIS PATTERN FAVORS SOME REDUCTION OF THE FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT...BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET RE-DEVELOP A STRONG RIDGE WHICH...IF IT VERIFIES... WOULD FAVOR A MORE RAPID WESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER THAT. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 28C...AND WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 27C FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO. SINCE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COOLER WATER...THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THEN. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS THEN LIKELY OVER THE COOLER WATERS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 14.7N 131.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 15.3N 133.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 15.9N 135.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 16.4N 137.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 17.0N 139.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 31/1200Z 17.5N 144.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 01/1200Z 18.0N 150.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 02/1200Z 18.0N 156.0W 60 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC