Hurricane IGNACIO

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2003

FIRST-LIGHT VISUAL IMAGES DO NOT SHOW A DISTINCT CENTER OF
CIRCULATION.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...AND SURFACE
PRESSURES CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE AREA.  EVEN IF THE CENTER
REMERGES OVER THE WATERS TO THE WEST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
BAJA...SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION IS UNLIKELY.  IGNACIO SHOULD BECOME
A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...OR LESS.

THE CENTER LOCATION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...AROUND 3 KT. 
IGNACIO REMAINS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING ASSOCIATED WITH
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST.  A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION.

EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION HAS DECREASED FOR NOW...THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
BAJA.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/1500Z 26.3N 112.4W    25 KT
 12HR VT     28/0000Z 26.6N 112.9W    20 KT
 24HR VT     28/1200Z 26.9N 113.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     29/0000Z 27.3N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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