ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2003 IGNACIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE RISEN MORE THAN 4 MB DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO AN ISOLATED AREA ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BAJA COASTLINE. THE CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT A 27/0448Z SSMI OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 35 NMI WEST OF LORETO. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SEVERELY LIMITED DUE TO A POWER OUTAGE AT NCEP ...SO ONLY THE NOGAPS...NAVY COAMPS...GFDN...AND UKMET MODELS WERE AVAILABLE. HOWEVER...THOSE MODELS MAINTAIN A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WHICH KEEPS IGNACIO INLAND OVER BAJA UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A NEW LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD REDEVELOP WEST OF BAJA...BUT WATER TEMPERATURES OFFSHORE ARE 25C OR COLDER WHICH WOULD NOT FAVOR ANY SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO REMAIN INLAND AND RAPIDLY DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW AND PERHAPS EVEN DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. WHILE MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED JUST WEST OFFSHORE THE SOUTH CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS. FORECASTER STEWART/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 26.1N 111.9W 25 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 26.5N 112.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 24HR VT 28/0600Z 27.1N 112.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 36HR VT 28/1800Z 27.7N 113.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 48HR VT 29/0600Z 28.4N 113.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 72HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC