Hurricane IGNACIO

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2003
 
POORLY-ORGANIZED IGNACIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER
INLAND.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC DATA REVEAL A RELATIVELY CONSISTENT
NORTHWEST MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED OF 4 KT. 
SATELLITE ANIMATION ALSO DEPICTS THAT THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION
IS MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST.  THERE IS A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF UPSLOPE FLOW.
 
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD INDUCE A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY FASTER..AND ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF THE CENTER EMERGING OVER WATER OFF THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  HOWEVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
THERE APPEAR TO BE TOO COOL FOR SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION.
 
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 25.6N 111.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 26.0N 112.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 26.6N 112.7W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 27.3N 113.3W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 28.0N 113.8W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 72HR VT     29/1800Z 29.2N 114.6W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 96HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
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