Hurricane IGNACIO
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HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2003
DESPITE ANOTHER BURST OF COLD TOP CONVECTION...IGNACIO CONTINUES TO
APPEAR LESS ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMGERY. USING A COMPROMISE OF
THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CYCLONE INLAND IN 6-12 HOURS
WITH A STEADY WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED. THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL ONCE
AGAIN IS SUGGESTING A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NOT AS QUICK AS SHIPS TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LA PAZ INDICATE THE CENTER OF IGNACIO HAS
PASSED NORTH OF THAT LOCATION AND THAT THE WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION
HAS RESUMED AFTER A BRIEF STALL. THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP ENOUGH
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IGNACIO TO MAINTAIN A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STEERING
CURRENT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL POSSIBLE.
THE CONTINUED SLOW MOTION MEANS THAT EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
STILL POSE A SERIOUS THREAT OF LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING.
FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0300Z 24.5N 110.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 24.7N 111.1W 55 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 27/0000Z 25.2N 111.6W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 27/1200Z 25.8N 112.1W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 28/0000Z 26.5N 112.6W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 29/0000Z 27.5N 113.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 30/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 31/0000Z 29.0N 115.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
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