ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IGNACIO HAS FINALLY STRENGTHENED INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. THIS MAKES IGNACIO THE LATEST HURRICANE TO FORM IN THIS BASIN IN THE MODERN ERA. AN EMBEDDED EYE FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA...AND 77 KT FROM SAB. ALSO...DATA T-NUMBERS RANGE FROM 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...TO 90 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN MODESTLY INCREASED TO 70 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/04. ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD...MOST OF THIS MOTION IS LIKELY DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM IGNACIO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE ALSO HELPED TO INDUCE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD JOG. HOWEVER... THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOW BACKED OFF ON ERODING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS. ALSO... UNLIKE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE 06Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN STRONG AGREEMENT AND TIGHTLY PACKED ABOUT A NORTHWEST TRACK UP THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHICH COAST WILL IGNACIO TRACK ALONG. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS TAKE THE HURRICANE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ITS MORE NORTHERN AND EASTERN INITIAL POSITION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GUNS AND GUNA ENSEMBLE MODELS AND HAS IGNACIO SKIRTING THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND AFTER 18 HOURS. BEFORE THEN...HOWEVER...IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND PEAK IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS AT 85 TO 90 KT BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. THIS IS BASED ON THE WELL-DEVELOPED EYE SIGNATURE AND 30-KT 150 MB NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE MAZATLAN 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA...WHICH SUGGESTS THE OUTFLOW LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN USUAL AND IS VERY STRONG. AFTERWARDS ...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST SINCE MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION WILL STILL BE OVER WATER. ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OR LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD EASILY RESULT IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS 10 TO 15 KT STRONGER OR WEAKER AFTER 24 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 22.7N 108.8W 70 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 23.2N 109.2W 85 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 23.9N 109.8W 80 KT...NEAR BAJA EAST COAST 36HR VT 25/1800Z 24.4N 110.3W 70 KT...NEAR BAJA EAST COAST 48HR VT 26/0600Z 25.0N 110.8W 60 KT...NEAR BAJA EAST COAST 72HR VT 27/0600Z 26.7N 111.7W 60 KT...NEAR BAJA EAST COAST 96HR VT 28/0600Z 28.0N 112.5W 60 KT...NEAR BAJA EAST COAST 120HR VT 29/0600Z 29.5N 113.5W 60 KT...NEAR BAJA EAST COAST NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC