ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1506Z SSMI PASS DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTION IS ALSO DEVELOPING JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT 2.0 AND SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR NOW. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...SHOULD INFLUENCE THE STEERING MOTION OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY FORECAST A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON SOME INDICATIONS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS OF A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE MID LEVELS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE GULF OF BAJA. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE HAS BEEN AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS LONG THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM WATER...AT LEAST THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ROBERTS FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 20.7N 107.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 21.3N 107.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 22.0N 109.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 22.7N 110.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 23.5N 111.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 24.5N 113.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z 25.0N 115.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 27/1800Z 25.5N 117.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC