ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2003 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS WITH THE DEPRESSION. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH DOES NOT YET SHOW MUCH BANDING. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT 2.0 AND SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/2. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE YET. THERE IS ALSO A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 18N115W. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY FORECAST A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE BAM MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THE SHALLOW BAM AFTER THAT. NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INITIALIZE THE CYCLONE. THE DEPRESSION IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN AS LONG IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THAT SHOULD BE 36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS IS A SMALL SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BOTH STRENGTHEN AND WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 21.0N 107.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 21.4N 107.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 22.0N 108.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 22.7N 110.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 23.5N 111.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 24.5N 113.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 25.0N 115.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 27/1200Z 25.5N 117.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC