Tropical Depression NINE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2003
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS WITH THE
DEPRESSION.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH DOES NOT YET SHOW
MUCH BANDING.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT 2.0 AND SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/2. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...
HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
RIDGE YET.  THERE IS ALSO A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR
18N115W. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY FORECAST A
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE BAM MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THE SHALLOW
BAM AFTER THAT.  NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INITIALIZE THE CYCLONE.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR...AND THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THUS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN AS LONG IT REMAINS
OVER WARM WATER.  ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THAT SHOULD BE 36
HR.  AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THIS IS A SMALL SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BOTH STRENGTHEN AND
WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 21.0N 107.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 21.4N 107.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 22.0N 108.6W    40 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 22.7N 110.1W    45 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 23.5N 111.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 24.5N 113.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 25.0N 115.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     27/1200Z 25.5N 117.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
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