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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2003
 
MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO HAS BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO BE DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E. 
THE CYCLONE IS SHOWING PERSISTENT COLD CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
AND GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY
IS SET TO 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 335/3.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. 
IR IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 18N114W.  NHC
TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THE PATTERN BY FORECAST A NORTHWESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR
A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST DRIFT FOR THE FIRST 12 HR BASED ON
PERSISTENCE...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE BAM MODELS AND LBAR.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS PROPERLY INITIALIZE THIS SYSTEM.

THE DEPRESSION IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR...AND THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
THUS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN AS LONG IT REMAINS
OVER WARM WATER.  ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THAT SHOULD BE 36
HR.  AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THIS IS A SMALL SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BOTH STRENGTHEN AND
WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1200Z 20.8N 107.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 21.1N 107.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 21.6N 108.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 22.4N 109.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 23.1N 111.2W    45 KT
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 24.0N 113.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     26/0600Z 24.5N 115.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     27/0600Z 25.0N 117.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
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