ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2003 HILDA IS STILL GENERATING CONVECTION IN ITS SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT NO CLOSER THAN 75 NM FROM THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THIS IS APPARENTLY ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THAT WINDS ARE STILL AT OR ABOVE 30 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT HILDA IS UNDER WESTERLY SHEAR THAT WILL CONTINUE AND IN FACT STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HILDA WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C SST WATER IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE CYCLONE IS CUT OFF FROM ANY WARM SOUTHERLY INFLOW. AS A RESULT...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND HILDA SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/14. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MERELY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. MOST GUIDANCE IS NORTH OF...AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL...FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY RESPONDING TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W. GIVEN THE LIMITED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT HILDA WILL INTERACT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS TROUGH. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 18.3N 126.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 18.6N 128.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 19.0N 131.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 13/1800Z 19.3N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/0600Z 19.6N 136.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 15/0600Z 20.0N 140.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 16/0600Z 20.0N 145.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC