ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2003 THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF HILDA REMAINS EXPOSED ABOUT 75 NM NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE STILL AT MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH AND SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR NOW. THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LESS STRENGTHENING WITH EACH RUN. HILDA IS MOVING AWAY FROM ITS UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND NOW SEEMS TO BE ISOLATED FROM ANY MOIST SOUTHERLY INFLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL SPINDOWN AND DECAY TO REMNANT LOW STATUS IN A COUPLE DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL 300/13. WITH THE CENTER EXPOSED AND THE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD COOLER WATERS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AND FASTER...TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 17.6N 120.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 18.2N 122.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 18.6N 124.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 18.8N 127.4W 25 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 19.0N 130.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 14/0600Z 19.5N 135.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 15/0600Z 20.0N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 16/0600Z 20.5N 145.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC