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Tropical Storm HILDA

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TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN AUG 10 2003
 
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB AND TAFB CONTINUE TO GIVE 35 KT FOR
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE...AND THAT REMAINS THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY.  OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER MAY BE FARTHER NORTH THAN INDICATED BY INFRARED
IMAGERY AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION.  I WILL WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGERY BEFORE MAKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS.   FOR THE TIME BEING...THE INITIAL MOTION
IS ESTIMATED TO BE A VERY CLIMATOLOGICAL 285/11.

HILDA'S STEERING IS EXPECTED TO BE CONTROLLED BY MID-LEVEL
EASTERLIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE...AND/OR AN
INTERACTION WITH GUILLERMO.  WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS GUILLERMO AND
DOES NOT SUGGEST AN INTERACTION...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MAINTAIN
GUILLERMO AS THE DOMINANT CYCLONE. HOWEVER...ONLY THE UKMET SHOWS
AN INTERACTION AS THE NOGAPS KEEPS GUILLERMO TOO FAR AWAY FROM
HILDA.  AT THE MOMENT...GUILLERMO IS MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN HILDA
AND FORECAST TO ACCELERATE...SO THE OFFICIAL THINKING AT THIS TIME
IS THAT GUILLERMO WILL NOT HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE TRACK OF
HILDA.  THERE IS MORE THAN THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS TRACK
FORECAST...WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK.

THERE IS NO OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE THAT CALLS FOR MUCH DEVELOPMENT OF
HILDA.  THE SHIPS MODEL IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH EACH RUN...AND
CURRENTLY BRINGS HILDA UP TO ONLY 48 KT.  THE SHEAR IS MODEST AND
THE WATERS ARE WARM...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL APPEARS TO BE RESPONDING
TO ITS OTHER THERMODYNAMIC PREDICTORS.  THE GFDL CALLS FOR
WEAKENING...AND NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO MUCH WITH HILDA
EITHER.  WITH THIS UNANIMITY OF UNENTHUSIASM...AND THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE CENTER MAY BE NOT AS WELL CONNECTED TO THE CONVECTION AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE LESS
DEVELOPMENT THAN BEFORE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 15.2N 117.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 15.6N 119.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 16.2N 121.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 16.6N 124.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 17.0N 126.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     13/1200Z 17.0N 131.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     14/1200Z 17.0N 135.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     15/1200Z 17.5N 140.0W    40 KT
 
 
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