ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT AUG 09 2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH A LARGE BURST OF COLD CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF THE ALLEGED LOW-LEVEL CENTER POSITION. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS ALSO IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY... ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS 30 KT...OR T2.0...INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15. THE FORWARD MOTION AND INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATES ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. CONVENTIONAL INFRARED SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS ARE SCATTERED ABOUT THE COMPASS... WHICH LENDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION. WHILE THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON A WEAK SIGNATURE IN AN EARLIER SSMI OVERPASS... THE POSITION WAS NOT TAKEN AS FAR NORTH OR WEST AS SOME OF THE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES SUGGEST. TD-8E IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND...THEREFORE... SHOULD BE STEERED MAINLY WESTWARD. THE FORWARD SPEED WAS INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE LARGE CIRCULATION WILL ADD SOME BETA-EFFECT MOTION TO THE MEAN STEERING FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL...GFS ...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE THREE BETA-ADVECTION MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 09/06Z NOGAPS AND 09/00Z UKMET MODEL RUNS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN 24 HOURS OR LESS...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY. WHILE THE INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE IS NOT LOCATED IN THE CENTER OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE STILL HAS GOOD STRUCTURE AND AN IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL REDEVELOP FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THE NEXT ADVISORY. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 67 KT BY 72 HOURS...WHILE THE GFDL KILLS THE SYSTEM BY 48 HOURS. GIVEN THE RATHER IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE AND OUTFLOW PATTERN...MY FEELING IS THAT EVEN THE SHIPS MODEL COULD BE TOO LOW AND TOO SLOW WITH THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS AND THEN REMAIN STEADY FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS WITH ONLY SLOW WEAKENING AFTER THAT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NEAR COOLER WATER. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS...THEN THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE INCREASED EVEN MORE. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 13.8N 113.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 14.2N 115.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 14.8N 118.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 15.3N 121.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 15.6N 124.1W 65 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 16.0N 129.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 13/1200Z 16.5N 134.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 14/1200Z 17.0N 139.0W 55 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC