Tropical Storm GUILLERMO

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2003
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS REVEALED THAT GUILLERMO IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION.  THEREFORE...THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED TO 25 KT...WHICH IS IN LINE 
WITH THE LASTEST DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  

GUILLERMO CONTINUES ON TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/15. 
THE CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW 
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEERING GUILLERMO GENERALLY WESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THE GFS INDICATES THAT
THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AND MERGE WITH THE ITCZ
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF GUILLERMO.
 
GUILLERMO IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
INCLUDES FORECAST POINTS FOR THE REMNANT LOW THROUGH 120 HOURS.
HOWEVER...IF GUILLERMO MERGES WITH THE ABOVEMENTIONED ITCZ
DISTURBANCE...DISSIPATION WOULD OCCUR MUCH SOONER.

SINCE THE CENTER HAS CROSSED 140W LONGITUDE...THIS IS THE LAST
FORECAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
GUILLERMO.  THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU.
 
FORECASTER AVILA/BROWN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 16.3N 140.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 16.3N 143.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 16.3N 145.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 16.2N 148.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 16.1N 150.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 16.0N 153.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     16/1800Z 16.0N 157.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     17/1800Z 16.0N 160.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN