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Tropical Storm GUILLERMO (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2003
 
GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO GENERATE SMALL AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION BOTH
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  GIVEN THIS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT EVEN THOUGH THE SATELLITE
NUMBERS DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT THAT MUCH WIND.  THE MOST RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THE CYCLONE.

THE CENTER IS NOT VISIBLE IN EITHER IR OR SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY...BUT
A MICROWAVE PASS SUGGESTS THE CENTER IS BASICALLY ON TRACK. THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/14. GUILLERMO IS EMBEDDED IN A
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THIS BASIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED A BIT SOUTHWARD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS SUITE OF MODELS.
COMPLICATING THE TRACK FORECAST ARE ACTIVE DISTURBANCES IN THE ITCZ
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF GUILLERMO. THE GFS AND NOGAPS TAKE
GUILLERMO...OR ITS REMNANTS...RAPIDLY AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ITCZ DISTURBANCES...WHILE THE UKMET MAINTAINS SEPARATION BETWEEN
THE SYSTEMS AND HAS A MUCH SLOWER MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN FAVORING THE FORMER SOLUTION...
ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMETHING OF A DILEMMA. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY UNDER WESTERLY SHEAR AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER
24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT HOWEVER...GUILLERMO COULD FIND ITSELF
UNDER AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AND OVER WATERS STILL NEAR 26C.  THE
SHIPS MODEL GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS GUILLERMO AND MAKES IT A
HURRICANE IN 108 HOURS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ENVIRONMENTAL
THERMODYNAMICS ARE NOT FAVORABLE...AS THE WARM SOUTHERLY INFLOW
APPEARS TO BE CUT OFF NOW BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ITCZ DISTURBANCES. 
FOR THE TIME BEING...I AM MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...PRESUMING THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS WILL PREVAIL AND
GUILLERMO WILL SOON LOSE TO ITS COMPETITORS TO THE SOUTH.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 16.3N 137.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 16.4N 139.1W    25 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 16.5N 141.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 16.5N 144.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 16.5N 146.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N 150.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     16/0600Z 16.5N 154.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     17/0600Z 16.0N 157.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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