ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2003 GUILLERMO REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR...AND IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 25 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF GUILLERMO AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE FIRST 24-48 HR. GUILLERMO IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO BE PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH...SO THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION...BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST...AND SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET. THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS GUILLERMO OVER ROUGHLY 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DEPENDENT MAINLY ON THE VERTICAL SHEAR. THE GFS AND CANADIAN FORECAST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ALONG THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE...WHILE THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS HAVE A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL SOMEWHAT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES... CALLING FOR WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR BUT ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM TO LAST FOR 5 DAYS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 16.0N 132.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 16.1N 134.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 16.3N 136.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 13/0000Z 16.5N 138.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 13/1200Z 16.8N 141.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 14/1200Z 17.5N 145.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 15/1200Z 18.0N 149.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 16/1200Z 18.5N 153.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC