ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT AUG 09 2003 THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AND RAGGED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS NOW SEVERELY RESTRICTED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT FROM TAFB. OTHER SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 35 KT AND 30 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS HELD HIGHER BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND INNER-CORE WIND FIELD NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 265/12. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN THROUGH THE THINNING CIRRUS CANOPY. THIS POSITION WOULD KEEP GUILLERMO ON TRACK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST AS IT INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E LOCATED ABOUT 550 NMI TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GFS MODEL...AND IS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS. THE OUTFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF TD-8E HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS TOLL ON GUILLERMO. HOWEVER...TD-8E HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED ...SO THE OUTFLOW FROM THAT SYSTEM MAY ABATE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND ALLOW FOR MORE CENTRAL CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP. THIS IS THE REASON THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS ONLY LOWERED SLIGHTLY. THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO FORECAST GUILLERMO TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 84-96 HOURS...BUT THIS IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY UNLESS THE EASTERLY OUTFLOW SHEAR FROM TD-8E LETS UP COMPLETELY. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE 28C SST ISOTHERM...SO THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME PERIODIC STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AND KEEP THE CYCLONE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 15.4N 124.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 15.3N 125.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 15.1N 128.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 15.0N 130.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 15.0N 133.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z 15.0N 137.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 13/1800Z 15.0N 141.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 14/1800Z 15.0N 146.5W 35 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC