ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI AUG 08 2003 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...SO MAXIMUM WINDS ARE HELD AT 40 KT. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME CONSOLIDATED AND IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED...ALTHOUGH LACKING IN BANDING FEATURES. VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE OUTFLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS SLIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR. SINCE THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD...WATER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FURTHER STRENGTHENING. WITH THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS LESS STRENGTHENING THAN BEFORE...DUE TO A REDUCED PERSISTENCE COMPONENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST A WESTWARD MOTION...AROUND 270/6. THE GFS...U.K. MET OFFICE...AND NOGAPS MODELS ALL SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF A DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUILLERMO. IN THE GFS RUN...THE EASTERN SYSTEM QUICKLY BECOMES DOMINANT SO THAT THE MODEL VORTEX TRACKER HAS DIFFICULTY FOLLOWING THE CURRENT TROPICAL STORM. THE NOGAPS AND U.K. MET OFFICE RUNS KEEP GUILLERMO DISTINCT AND STRONGER. IN ANY EVENT...THE STEERING SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD...ASSUMING THAT GUILLERMO WILL HAVE MINIMAL INTERACTION WITH THE EASTERN DISTURBANCE. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF GUILLERMO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST...WITH A LITTLE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF...AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK. THE GFDL AND NOGAPS ARE FASTER AND TO SOUTH OF THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 16.6N 118.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 16.7N 119.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 09/0600Z 16.8N 121.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 09/1800Z 16.9N 123.4W 55 KT 48HR VT 10/0600Z 17.0N 125.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 11/0600Z 17.0N 129.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 12/0600Z 17.0N 133.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 13/0600Z 17.0N 136.5W 45 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC