ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU AUG 07 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND SOME BANDING FEATURES. HOWEVER...THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES IN A DAY OR TWO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 295 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. HOWEVER...A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL PROBABLY FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS HEAVILY BIASED TO THE GFS AND THE GFDL. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 17.0N 117.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 17.5N 118.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 08/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 09/0600Z 17.5N 121.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 09/1800Z 17.5N 123.5W 25 KT 72HR VT 10/1800Z 17.5N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 11/1800Z 17.5N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 12/1800Z 17.5N 135.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC