ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2003 LATEST QUIKSCAT INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS A SURFACE CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR BUT THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED...ONLY A STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION COULD BRING THE DEPRESSION TO STORM STATUS BEFORE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 8 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE WEST AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOME STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE AND WITH GLOBAL MODELS WHICH WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RATHER RAPIDLY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 16.5N 116.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 17.0N 118.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 17.5N 120.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 18.0N 122.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 09/1200Z 18.5N 124.0W 25 KT 72HR VT 10/1200Z 19.0N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 11/1200Z 20.0N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 12/1200Z 20.0N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC