ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2003 FELICIA HAS CHANGES LITTLE IN STRUCTURE THIS EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND 30 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AND COMPLEX MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF FLEICIA...WHILE VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. A BETTER-DEVELOPED SYSTEM WOULD PROBABLY RESPOND TO THIS PATTERN BY TURNING MORE NORTHWARD. FELICIA IS NOT WELL-DEVELOPED ENOUGH TO MAKE THIS TURN...SO IT SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. A DRIFTING BUOY NORTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED A SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 78F...A SIGN THAT FELICIA IS APPROACHING THE COLDER WATER. A COMBINATION OF WESTERLY SHEAR ANDS COLDER WATER SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IN 36-48 HR...OR PERHAPS LESS. NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HANG TO TO THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA FOR EVEN 72 HR...SO IT MAY DISSIPATE COMPLETELY OR WEAKEN TO AN EASTERLY WAVE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 16.2N 129.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 16.5N 132.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 16.9N 134.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 17.6N 137.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 24/0000Z 18.3N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 25/0000Z 19.1N 145.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC