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Tropical Storm FELICIA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2003

FELICIA HAS CHANGES LITTLE IN STRUCTURE THIS EVENING...WITH
OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND 30 KT FROM TAFB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE
AND COMPLEX MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF
FLEICIA...WHILE VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  A BETTER-DEVELOPED SYSTEM WOULD
PROBABLY RESPOND TO THIS PATTERN BY TURNING MORE NORTHWARD. 
FELICIA IS NOT WELL-DEVELOPED ENOUGH TO MAKE THIS TURN...SO IT
SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES.

A DRIFTING BUOY NORTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED A SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE OF 78F...A SIGN THAT FELICIA IS APPROACHING THE COLDER
WATER.  A COMBINATION OF WESTERLY SHEAR ANDS COLDER WATER SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IN 36-48
HR...OR PERHAPS LESS.  NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HANG TO TO THE
REMNANTS OF FELICIA FOR EVEN 72 HR...SO IT MAY DISSIPATE COMPLETELY
OR WEAKEN TO AN EASTERLY WAVE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 16.2N 129.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 16.5N 132.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 16.9N 134.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 17.6N 137.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 18.3N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 19.1N 145.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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