ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2003 FELICIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/9. FELICIA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE-SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PORTION OF THIS RIDGE WEST OF 130W SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FELICIA TO GRADUAL TURN MORE NORTHWARD. MOST TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SOMEWHAT ACCELERATE FELICIA TO A COMPROMISE SPEED BETWEEN THE FASTER BAM MODELS AND THE SLOWER DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. ONE POSSIBILITY TO BE WATCHED IS THAT FELICIA...OR ITS REMAINS...COULD TURN MORE WESTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW SHOWS DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER FELICIA. THIS SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION... ALTHOUGH IT COULD LEAD TO SOME CONVECTIVE BURSTS WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS ALIVE. THE SHEAR AND THE FORECAST MOTION OVER COOLER WATER SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF THE CYCLONE IS 36-48 HR...WITH THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATING BY 120 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 15.6N 124.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 15.9N 125.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 16.3N 128.6W 30 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 16.8N 131.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 23/0000Z 17.5N 133.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 24/0000Z 19.0N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 25/0000Z 21.0N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC