ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2003 THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO NOTE THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED TO ABOUT 11 KT. THIS NECESSITATES AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ALONG MORE OR LESS THE SAME HEADING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. THIS IS PRIMARILY BECAUSE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INITIALIZING TOO MUCH OF A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS TO THE NORTHWEST OF FELICIA...AND LEADING TO A NORTHWARD BIAS TO MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. FELICIA WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 15.3N 123.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 15.5N 125.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 15.9N 127.7W 30 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 16.4N 130.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 22/1800Z 17.0N 132.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/1800Z 18.5N 138.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/1800Z 20.5N 143.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 25/1800Z 22.5N 148.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC