ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2003 FELICIA CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIMITED CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 KT. GIVEN THE RAPID TRANSLATION SPEED...16 KT...I AM INCLINED TO GO WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THAT WILL KEEP FELICIA A TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE SHEAR IS LOW...BUT THE SURROUNDING AIR IS RATHER DRY. SSTS ARE MARGINAL...BETWEEN 26 AND 27C. THESE FACTORS ARGUE FOR NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT... HOWEVER...FELICIA SHOULD BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND COOLER WATERS AND THEN DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...IF THE DRY ENVIRONMENT DOMINATES THE CONVECTION THEN FELICIA WOULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/16. THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE BUT IT APPEARS AS IF THERE IS INSUFFICIENT DEEP CONVECTION FOR FELICIA TO RESPOND TO IT. ALL THE GUIDANCE GRADUALLY CURVES THE TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THIS WEAKNESS. HOW MUCH CURVATURE ACTUALLY DEVELOPS IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION THE CYCLONE CAN GENERATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE UKMET AND BAMS MODELS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 15.5N 120.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 15.6N 122.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 16.2N 125.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 16.8N 128.2W 30 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 17.5N 131.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 23/0000Z 19.0N 138.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/0000Z 21.0N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 25/0000Z 24.5N 149.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC