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Tropical Storm FELICIA

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TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT JUL 19 2003
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND ON IR IMAGES. A 1259Z TRMM PASS SHOWS THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER TO THE NORTH AND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTION. A
SLIGHT STRAIGHTENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE WEAKENING OVER COOL WATERS
BEGINS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

FELICIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AT 15 KNOTS AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE STEERING PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
AND THIS IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 15.7N 117.2W    40 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 16.0N 119.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 16.5N 122.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 17.0N 125.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 17.5N 128.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 19.5N 134.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 20.5N 138.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     24/1200Z 22.5N 143.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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