ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT JUL 19 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15. THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THERE IS ALSO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE STORM...BUT NONE OF THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO REFLECT THIS FEATURE IN THEIR TRACK FORECASTS AND NEITHER DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. A CDO FEATURE PERSISTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS 40 KNOTS...INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES. MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THE WIND SPEED MAY BE LOWER THAN 40 KNOTS. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS MODEST STRENGTHENING FOR 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 15.6N 115.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 16.1N 118.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 16.6N 121.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 17.1N 124.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 17.6N 127.1W 40 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 19.0N 132.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 20.1N 137.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 24/0600Z 22.0N 142.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC