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Tropical Storm FELICIA

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TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2003
 
AFTER THE 1500 UTC ADVISORY WAS RELEASED...A SSMI PASSAGE OVER
FELICIA INDICATED THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CONVECTION AND NOT EMBEDDED AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THIS MEANS
THAT THE INITIAL POSITION HAS TO BE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH
AND THE WINDS HAVE TO BE DECREASED TO 40 KNOTS. THE CURRENT
LOCATION AND STRUCTURE ALSO SUGGEST CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY
FORECAST AND FELICIA MAY NOT REACHED HURRICANE STATUS AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. FELICIA IS NOW HEADING FOR AN AREA OF DRYER AND STABLE
AIR. BOTH GFS AND THE NOGAPS WEAKEN FELICIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. FELICIA IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS UNTIL WEAKENING BEGINS IN ABOUT 48
TO 72 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS.
  
THE BEST ESTIMATED OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
EXPANDING WESTWARD. FELICIA SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE GENERAL TRACK 
THROUGH 5 DAYS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS
WHICH IN FACT ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/2100Z 15.5N 112.6W    40 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.0N 115.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 16.5N 118.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 17.0N 121.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     21/1800Z 18.5N 129.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     22/1800Z 19.5N 134.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     23/1800Z 22.0N 140.0W    25 KT
 
 
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