ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2003 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS INTENSIFIED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 45 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE WARM ALONG THE TRACK OF FELICIA THROUGH ALMOST 72 HOURS. THEREFORE...STRENGHTENING IS INDICATED AND FELICIA MAY BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING COOL WATERS. FELICIA IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS EXPANDING WESTWARD. FELICIA SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE GENERAL TRACK AND SAME FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 5 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS WHICH IN FACT ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 14.8N 111.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 15.0N 114.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 15.5N 117.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 16.0N 120.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 16.5N 123.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 17.5N 129.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 22/1200Z 20.0N 136.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 23/1200Z 23.0N 142.0W 30 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC