ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN JUL 13 2003 THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY SEPARATE FROM THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOSTLY OBSCURED BY OUTFLOW CIRRUS ON THE WEST SIDE...THE INITIAL POSITION OF ENRIQUE IS CONFIRMED BY 13/0105Z QUIKSCAT AND 13/0337Z SSMI OVERPASSES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON 40-45 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND SPEEDS NOTED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AND THE CONTINUED DEGRADED APPEARANCE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES... THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS NOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN NON-EXISTENT NEAR THE SURFACE CENTER FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS. ENRIQUE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES THE MORE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL...GFS...GFDN...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE... ENRIQUE IS PRESENTLY OVER 23C SSTS AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER UNFAVORABLY COOL WATER FOR THE REMAINDER OF ITS LIFETIME AND... THEREFORE...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED THAT SCENARIO. ENRIQUE SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. FORECASTER STEWART/JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 19.4N 119.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 19.7N 121.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 19.9N 124.3W 30 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 19.8N 126.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 15/0600Z 19.3N 129.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 16/0600Z 19.0N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 17/0600Z 19.0N 138.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC