ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2003 COLD WATER HAS TAKEN AN UNEXPECTEDLY SEVERE TOLL ON ENRIQUE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME INTENSE BURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE STILL OCCURRING...THE COVERAGE HAS DECREASED AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE HAS BECOME RAGGED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB... SAB...AND AFWA ARE ALL 55 KT...WHILE THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 50 KT. ENRIQUE IS NOW MOVING 305/14. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS THAT THE STORM IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA...WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 18N127W. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A SHORT-TERM CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS ENRIQUE WEAKENS FURTHER AND LOWER-LEVEL STEERING DOMINATES. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. ENRIQUE WILL BE MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COLDER WATER DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST BASED ON THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWERVER...ENRIQUE COULD DISSIPATED EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 18.4N 116.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 19.3N 117.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 20.1N 120.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 20.5N 122.6W 35 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 20.5N 125.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 15/1800Z 20.5N 130.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 16/1800Z 20.5N 135.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 17/1800Z...DISSIPATING NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC