ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2003 ENRIQUE MAINTAINS AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80C NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...A TRMM OVERPASS AND 0802Z SHOWED NO EYE AND A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER WEST OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BANDS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB... AND AFWA ARE ALL 55 KT...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. ENRIQUE SHOWS GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT WEAK WESTERLY FLOW MAY BE UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW. ENRIQUE IS NOW MOVING 305/13...CONTINUING THE NORTHWESTWARD JOG. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STORM IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA...WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 18N124W. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A SHORT-TERM CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS ENRIQUE WEAKENS OVER COLD WATER AND LOWER-LEVEL STEERING BECOMES PREDOMINANT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BY COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS...BUT WHAT GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. ENRIQUE IS NOW NEAR THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM...WHICH MEANS TIME FOR INTENSIFICATION HAS JUST ABOUT RUN OUT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE STORM COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL INTENSITY TREND SHOULD BE DOWN FROM HERE ON. ENRIQUE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST 48-72 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REFLECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE COLDER WATER. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 17.4N 114.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 18.3N 116.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 19.2N 118.7W 50 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 19.8N 121.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 20.0N 123.7W 40 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 20.0N 129.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 16/1200Z 20.0N 134.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC