ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2003 RATHER INTENSE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...MAKING THE CENTER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY AS INDICATED BY THE LARGE SCATTER IN THE FIX POSITONS PROVIDED BY THE THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. HOWEVER ...11/0107Z QUIKSCAT AND 11/0451Z SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASSES CONFIRM THE INITIAL POSITION SHOULD BE RELOCATED FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO THE RELOCATION...THE RECENT SSMI OVERPASS INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EMBEDDED AT LEAST 30 NMI WITHIN THE EASTERN PORTION OF -70C CLOUD TOPS. BASED ON CONSENSUS 30 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONVECTIVE PATTERN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE NEW CENTER LOCATION...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO 35-KT TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/09...BASED PRIMARILY ON MICROWAVE FIX POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. ENRIQUE IS EMBEDDED IN MODEST DEEP EASTERLY STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTS ON TAKING THE CYCLONE MORE POLEWARD INITIALLY AND THEN TURNING IT WESTWARD AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE UKMET IS THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND P91E MODELS BEING THE FARTHEST SOUTH. THE GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE REACTING TO AN INITIALIZED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED ABOUT 400 NMI WEST OF ENRIQUE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS UPPER-LOW NO LONGER EXISTS AND THAT EASTERLY FLOW IS PRESENT WEST OF ENRIQUE. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT IS ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE BETWEEN THE P91E AND GFS MODELS. DESPITE THE RECENT IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND A FORECAST FOR THE EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR TO WEAKEN...ENRIQUE ONLY HAS A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SINCE IS IT EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SUB-25C SSTS BY 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR MOST OF THE STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. HOWEVER...IF ENRIQUE SLOWS DOWN A LITTLE MORE...THEN THERE WOULD BE MORE TIME OVER WARM WATER AND THE STORM COULD BE STRONGER THAN WHAT IS FORECAST. FORECASTER STEWART/JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 14.7N 109.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 15.0N 111.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 15.5N 114.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 16.4N 116.7W 40 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 17.2N 119.4W 35 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 18.0N 125.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 15/0600Z 18.0N 130.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 16/0600Z 18.0N 136.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC