| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Tropical Storm DOLORES (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON JUL 07 2003
 
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED AND IS DISPLACED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION AND DOLORES IS
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.   A BURST OR TWO OF DEEP
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS CONTINUED WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES A RATHER
STABLE AIR MASS AS WELL AS PROGRESSIVELY COLDER SSTS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/9.  DOLORES IS EXPECTED TO BE
STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS.   THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK THAT FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0900Z 16.7N 119.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     07/1800Z 17.3N 121.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     08/0600Z 18.0N 123.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     08/1800Z 18.9N 125.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     09/0600Z 19.5N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     10/0600Z 20.5N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     11/0600Z 21.5N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN