Tropical Storm DOLORES

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TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN JUL 06 2003
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATES PART OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME EXPOSED ON THE NORTH
SIDE. HOWEVER...THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE ROTATING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND ANOTHER LARGER CENTER CLOSER INTO THE DEEP
CONVECTION. EITHER WAY...THE INITIAL POSITION IS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ABOUT 45 NMI NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. THE SYSTEM
HAS ALSO BEEN UPGRADED TO 35-KT TROPICAL STORM DOLORES BASED ON
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...RESPECTIVELY. OUTFLOW IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.
 
ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD...SO WAS THE
PREVIOUS 12Z POSITION WHICH MAKES THE STORM MOTION ABOUT 300/11.
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING
OTHER THAN TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TRACK A LITTLE TO THE NORTH
THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL
POSITION. AFTER THAT...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AGREE WITH
TAKING THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF DOLORES.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WEAK WILL THE CYCLONE WILL IN 72 HOURS.
SINCE DOLORES WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER BY 48 HOURS...
THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME SHALLOW IN THE VERTICAL...AND
BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. 

LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST. THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL IS FORECASTING DOLORES TO PEAK AT AROUND 43 KT IN
24 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER THAT AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER SUB-25C SSTS. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE AND THE
SHIPS MODEL WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
DOLORES COULD DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. 
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/2100Z 15.2N 118.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 15.7N 119.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 16.4N 121.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 16.9N 123.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 17.3N 125.2W    40 KT
 72HR VT     09/1800Z 18.0N 128.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     10/1800Z 19.0N 132.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     11/1800Z 20.0N 136.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
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