ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN JUL 06 2003 A RATHER IMPRESSIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE DEVELOPED OVER THE EP942003 SUSPECT AREA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS RESULTING IN DVORAK T NUMBERS OF 2.5/2.0/2.0 FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC RESPECTIVELY. WHILE THERE WAS NO CLEAR EVIDENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER ON YESTERDAY'S VISIBLE IMAGERY AND EVEN THOUGH RECENT QUIKSCAT AND MICROWAVE DATA ARE AMBIGUOUS...IT IS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET TO ISSUE A DEPRESSION ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/10. THE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR 72 HOURS. THERE IS A CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N 143W WHICH COULD INCREASE THE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION AFTER 72 HOURS BUT ONLY IF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT BEEN REDUCED TO A LOW LEVEL SWIRL. THE FORECAST IS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH DIAGNOSES LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR...NOW OR FORECAST...BUT INCREASINGLY COLDER SSTS ARE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH ARE THE LIMITING FACTOR. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 13.9N 116.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 14.7N 117.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 15.4N 119.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 16.8N 123.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 08/0600Z 16.8N 123.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 09/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 10/0600Z 19.0N 129.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC