ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU JUN 26 2003 SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE STRENGTHENING EPISODE NOTED EARLIER HAS ENDED...PERHAPS DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH LAND. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT T3.0...45 KT. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE EASTERLY SHEAR HAS LESSENED AND CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST. OBVIOUSLY THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF CARLOS IS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK. IF THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...RAPID WEAKENING WOULD TAKE PLACE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. HOWEVER IF THE CENTER REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE...THE STORM COULD MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH...OR EVEN INTENSIFY. AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE POSSIBILITIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH. THE NORTHWARD MOTION WAS UNEXPECTED. IT HAD BEEN PRESUMED THAT THE STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WOULD FORCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER THE STEERING OF CARLOS APPARENTLY HAS BEEN INFLUENCED MORE BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITHIN WHICH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN EMBEDDED. THIS TROUGH COULD CARRY CARLOS INLAND VERY SOON. HOWEVER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE ANTICYCLONE WILL SOON BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. THUS THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH THE CENTER MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST LINE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REPORTS FROM A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN NEPP AND THE RADAR AT PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO HAVE BEEN VERY USEFUL FOR THE TRACKING OF CARLOS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 15.7N 97.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 16.2N 98.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 16.6N 99.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 28/1200Z 17.0N 100.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 29/0000Z 17.4N 101.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 30/0000Z 18.0N 103.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 01/0000Z 19.0N 106.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 02/0000Z 20.0N 108.5W 35 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC