Tropical Storm CARLOS

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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU JUN 26 2003

SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE STRENGTHENING EPISODE NOTED
EARLIER HAS ENDED...PERHAPS DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE
CIRCULATION WITH LAND.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT T3.0...45
KT.  ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY THE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE EASTERLY SHEAR HAS
LESSENED AND CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST.  OBVIOUSLY THE
FUTURE INTENSITY OF CARLOS IS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK.  IF
THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...RAPID WEAKENING WOULD TAKE PLACE OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER IF THE CENTER REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE...THE STORM COULD MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH...OR EVEN
INTENSIFY.  AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE POSSIBILITIES...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH.
 
THE NORTHWARD MOTION WAS UNEXPECTED. IT HAD BEEN PRESUMED THAT THE
STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WOULD
FORCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER THE STEERING OF CARLOS
APPARENTLY HAS BEEN INFLUENCED MORE BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...WITHIN WHICH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN EMBEDDED. 
THIS TROUGH COULD CARRY CARLOS INLAND VERY SOON. HOWEVER THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...IS BASED ON THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE ANTICYCLONE WILL SOON BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT
STEERING FEATURE.  THUS THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH THE CENTER MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST LINE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPORTS FROM A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN NEPP AND THE RADAR AT PUERTO
ANGEL MEXICO HAVE BEEN VERY USEFUL FOR THE TRACKING OF CARLOS OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 15.7N  97.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 16.2N  98.1W    45 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 16.6N  99.2W    45 KT
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 17.0N 100.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 17.4N 101.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 18.0N 103.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     01/0000Z 19.0N 106.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     02/0000Z 20.0N 108.5W    35 KT
 
 
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