ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU JUN 26 2003 CARLOS IS STRENGTHENING. THIS IS BASED ON DATA FROM THE SHIP V7AM9 WHICH REPORTED 40 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 1005.8 MB NEAR THE CENTER AND ON SATELLITE IMAGES THAT SHOW A WELL DEFINED CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. UNANIMOUSLY...DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS DECREASING AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF CARLOS BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND. RADAR FROM PUERTO ANGEL...MEXICO AND VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT CARLOS HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE DAY WHILE REORGANIZING BUT...THE OVERALL SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORCE CARLOS TO MOVE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THIS WOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF CARLOS VERY NEAR...OR ON...THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 3 OR 4 DAYS. IF THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE...WEAKENING MAY NOT OCCUR AS INDICATED. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE CENTER MOVES FURTHER INLAND...A FASTER WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. DUE TO THE NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO SALINA CRUZ AND DISCONTINUED WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO BY THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 15.1N 97.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 15.7N 97.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 27/1800Z 16.5N 98.8W 60 KT 36HR VT 28/0600Z 17.0N 100.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 28/1800Z 17.5N 101.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 29/1800Z 18.0N 103.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 30/1800Z 19.0N 105.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 01/1800Z 19.5N 108.0W 50 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC