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Tropical Depression THREE-E (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2003
 
AFTER LOOKING QUITE DISORGANIZED AROUND 04Z...CONVECTION IS
RE-DEVELOPING IN BANDS NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE-E. THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AS WELL AS 30 KT WINDS INDICATED
NEAR THE CENTER ON TWO RECENT SSM/I OVERPASSES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/7.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS
INDICATE THIS FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE
DEPRESSION ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR 2-3 DAYS...FOLLOWED
BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH SOME SPREAD ON THE SPEED.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING
THE FIRST 72 HR...THEN SHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT 96 AND
120 HR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL.

TD 3-E IS CURRENTLY IS A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 
LARGE-SCALE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE AFTER
24-36 HR...WHICH WOULD CREATE A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING
FOR THE FIRST 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY FASTER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
24-72 HR PERIOD.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN OVER
COOLER WATER.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS
ARE BOTH STRONGER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  IF THE SYSTEM STAYS
OFFSHORE AND THE SHEAR DECREASES AS FORECAST...THE CYCLONE COULD
GET SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY PREDICTED.
 
THE FORECAST TRACK ROUGHLY PARALLELS THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND
ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING THUS REMAINS IN
FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0900Z 14.5N  98.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 15.0N  99.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 15.7N 100.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     27/1800Z 16.4N 102.1W    50 KT
 48HR VT     28/0600Z 16.9N 103.4W    60 KT
 72HR VT     29/0600Z 18.0N 106.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     30/0600Z 19.0N 108.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     01/0600Z 19.5N 111.0W    40 KT
 
 
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