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Tropical Storm BLANCA (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT JUN 21 2003
 
BLANCA IS HANGING ON BY A THREAD.  IT IS PRODUCING SOME DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH-SIDE OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER BUT
CONTINUES TO BATTLE THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES. BLANCA IS
OVER 28C WATER AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CALL
FOR BLANCA TO REGAIN STORM STATUS. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE DAYS...AND
SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL DECAY.
 
THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW AROUND BLANCA REMAINS WEAK AND THE
SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED TOWARD THE EAST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS STATIONARY AND LITTLE NET
MOTION IS EXPECTED WHILE THE SYSTEM WINDS DOWN.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 15.6N 105.7W    25 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 15.6N 105.7W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 15.6N 105.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 15.6N 105.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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