ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI JUN 20 2003 BLANCA HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A RECENT SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE MOVING QUICKLY FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE SWIRL INDICATIVE OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR THAT HAS AFFECTED BLANCA. THIS UNFAVORABLE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND BLANCA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON. THE WIND SPEED IS IS DECREASED TO 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE MOTION HAS BEEN A VERY SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT. GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE CONTINUED SLOW MOTION OF THE REMNANT LOW WITH DIRECTIONS OF MOTION VARYING FROM SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION PREVENTS ME FROM MAKING THIS THE LAST ADVISORY. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 15.3N 106.4W 25 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 15.2N 106.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 22/0000Z 15.4N 107.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 22/1200Z 15.6N 107.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 23/0000Z 15.8N 108.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC